Tourism Industries Canadian Travel to the U.S. and Forecast - Chart #10
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A key influence on Canadian visitation to the U.S. is the exchange rate of the Canadian dollar to the U.S. dollar. Over the past two years the Canadian dollar has fallen from about 731/2 cents/US$ early in 1997 to about 661/2 cents/US$ in late March. The impact of this consistent decline has been clearly evident in the trend of arrivals which declined marginally (-1%) in 1997 and dramatically (-11%) in 1998. The Canadian dollar is expected to appreciate slowly over the forecast period. Ca nadian arrivals to the U.S. are estimated to produce a slight increase of nearly 2% by the end of 1999.

Job creation has been generally strong in Canada in the past couple of years, and has shown increased vigor in recent months. In 1999, employment is expected to grow by 3.2 percent, the strongest rate since 1988. Over the 2000 to 2002 period, employment growth is expected to moderate to an average annual rate of about 2.2 per cent. This will translate into a gradual recovery in U.S. arrivals with annual growth between 3.5% and 4.0% over the period 2000 to 2002. So that's the good news.

Chart #10 Influences on Canada Forecast

Influences on Canada Forecast

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