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TInews Archive #20031021.html
Date: Tues, 21 Oct 2003
From: TInews Announcement <announce@tinet.ita.doc.gov>
To: TInews Announcement <tiannounce@tinet.ita.doc.gov>
Subject: Revised Forecast for 2003-2007 International Arrivals Issued

=== TINEWS ===================================

October 21, 2003

Revised Forecast for 2003-2007 International Arrivals Issued

Contact: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
E-mail: otti@trade.gov
Web: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov
Phone: (202) 482-0140, Fax: (202) 482-2887

The Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI) issued a revised forecast for international arrivals to the United States at the TIA Marketing Outlook Forum Conference in Austin, Texas today. To see the press release for the forecast, please go to: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/recovery/forecastpress_10212003.html.

In addition, OTTI has posted several tables that provide the new projections for international travel to the country for 2003-2007. To see the tables, please go to: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/view/f-2000-99-001/index.html

Some of the Highlights include:
The arrivals forecast indicates that for the third straight year, the United States will see a decline in arrivals. Total international arrivals to the country peaked in 2000 at 50.9 million visitors. In 2001and 2002 total international travel to the country declined to 44.9 million, and 41.9 million, respectively. The new forecast for 2003 shows that 40.1 million travelers should visit the United States. This is down 4 percent from 2002.
The declines in 2001 and 2002 have been greater for the United States than for world international arrivals. According to new data just released from the World Tourism Organization, the United States’ market share for total international arrivals worldwide has slipped to 6.0 percent. This is down dramatically since the 1992 peak USA market share of 9.4 percent. To see the world arrivals and receipts market share table for 1984-2002, please go to: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/outreachpages/inbound.world_us_intl_arrivals.html

While 2003 will register declining numbers to the country, the forecast for 2004-2007 show that arrivals will see an average annual five percent growth rate for 2004-2006, and slow slightly to a 4 percent growth rate in 2007. The fastest growth in arrivals between 2002 and 2007 among the 30 plus forecasted countries will be from: India, up 49 percent; Austria, up 45 percent; Denmark, up 35 percent; Finland, up 34 percent, and the United Kingdom, up 33 percent. As you review the forecast for arrivals, you will see numerous shifts in the top markets that generate visitors to this country. The growth rates vary each year, as certain markets will recover more quickly than others. It is hoped this data will assist the industry to capitalize on the markets that show promise for the future.

Of course, growth rates alone do not define a strategy. To develop a strategic plan for attracting visitors, this country, and the destinations within also need to take into consideration the number of visitors generated from a market, their spending, and other key traveler characteristics among other things. This forecast along with additional data from OTTI in conjunction with assistance from the Commercial Service staff in the United States and abroad, offers the industry the tools to provide the international traveler with a satisfying experience in the U.S. Please visit the OTTI web site to learn more about the Commerce products and services that may assist you. Go to: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/

This forecast was produced using an econometric model which considers historical arrivals to the U.S, economic performance indices, political environments, in-market conditions and programs, and other influencing factors (such as SARS) for 30 plus individual countries and all world regions. To learn more about the forecast program, go to: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/research/programs/forecast/index.html

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Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce, Room 7025
Washington, D.C. 20230
(202) 482-0140, fax: (202) 482-2887
e-mail: otti@trade.gov

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