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TInews Archive #20030123.html
Date: Thurs, 23 Jan 2003
From: TInews Announcement <announce@tinet.ita.doc.gov>
To: TInews Announcement <tiannounce@tinet.ita.doc.gov>
Subject: Overseas Arrivals to the United States (October and January - October 2002)

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Contact: Office of Travel &Tourism Industries
E-mail: otti@trade.gov
Web: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov
Phone: (202) 482-0140, Fax: (202) 482-2887

Overseas Arrivals to the United States
October and January - October 2002

Signs of Recovery

The US Department of Commerce, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI) is delighted to report strong growth in the preliminary October 2002 arrivals figures. For the second straight month, total arrivals have posted increases for the first time since January 2001.

The total preliminary arrivals (which includes Overseas, Canadian, and limited information on Mexican arrivals) in October 2002 grew 28 percent to 3,084,789, compared to October 2001 arrivals. The arrivals growth in October is a positive sign that travel is improving after 20 straight months of declines.

Year-to-date (January – October 2002) arrivals contracted 7 percent to 32,324,671 arrivals, compared to January – October 2001. The year-to-date arrivals comparison is down due to eight straight months of declines in 2002. By comparison, prior to the September 11th attacks travel in 2001 was down 3 percent. The good news is that international arrivals is only four percentage points away from reaching a point of recovery from the decline in arrivals recorded after the 9/11 attacks.

The definition of the recovery: At this time, OTTI is tracking the change in arrivals compared to the pre-September 11, 2001 arrival figures. To do this, we are using the January-August 2001 rates of change and comparing the year-to-date figures for 2002 to show if a market has recovered to the rates of change posted during the first eight months of 2001. Obviously, there are other ways to track the recovery, but until more markets show rates of change that are better than the January-August 2001 time frame, we will use this as one measure of the recovery. When more markets reach rates of change that are comparable to the 2000 arrival rates, we will move to this measure of comparison for the recovery. Until then, the latest figures show:

- Seven overseas markets have recovered from the 9/11 attacks (compared to the January-August 2001 time frame)
- South Korea is the first market to exceed 2000 arrivals.
- Oceania is the first overseas world region to register positive growth.

The International Trade Administration Press Office issued an official press release on the October 2002 and year-to-date arrival figures. To see the official press release, go to: http://www.ita.doc.gov/media/medianews.html

The release was issued January 21, 2003. The release is entitled: Commerce Reports Largest Monthly Increase in International Travel to the U.S. Since 9/11.

To access the OTTI international arrivals analysis, the top 40 arrival markets table, and the monthly arrival tables for all world regions and almost 20 top markets, visit the OTTI monthly arrivals web site page at: https://travel.trade.gov/view/m-2002-I-001/index.html.

The information provided in this analysis is from the OTTI monthly publication entitled “Summary of International Travel to the United States.” If there is a market that is of interest to you that is not reported on the tables provided, the monthly report has information on approximately 90 arrival markets for the country. In addition, monthly arrivals are also tracked for 10 regions, and 30 countries for over 40 ports-of-entry. To learn more about the arrivals data program, please visit OTTI’s web site at: https://travel.trade.gov/research/programs/i94/index.html.

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Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce, Room 7025
Washington, D.C. 20230
(202) 482-0140, fax: (202) 482-2887
e-mail: otti@trade.gov

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