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Date: May 5, 2005
From: TInews Announcement <announce@tinet.ita.doc.gov>
To: TInews Announcement <tiannounce@tinet.ita.doc.gov>
Subject: New 2004-2008 International Arrivals Forecast – Record Arrivals by 2006

=== TINEWS ===================================

An information service from the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
U.S. International Trade Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce

May 5, 2005

New 2004-2008 International Arrivals Forecast – Record Arrivals by 2006

The Department of Commerce issued a new forecast for international arrivals at the Travel Industry Association of America's International Pow Wow in New York City. To see the official U.S. Department of Commerce press release on the forecast, please go to: http://www.ita.doc.gov/media/PressReleases/0505/tourism_050505.html

In addition, the Department of Commerce, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI) has posted several tables associated with the forecast to its website. To see the tables, please go to: https://travel.trade.gov/cat/f-2005-05-001.html

Some of the Highlights include:
The U.S. should achieve record arrivals and exports by 2006, according to the semi-annual forecast. In 2006, it is forecasted that the United States will host over 52 million international visitors, who will generate almost $110 billion in export revenue for the country. The previous record arrival year was 2000 when over 51 million international travelers visited the country, and spent $103 billion.

Moreover, the new 2004 arrivals data and the previously released information from the World Tourism Organization (WTO), indicates that the United States' market share for total international arrivals worldwide has increased from 5.9 percent in 2003 to 6.1 percent in 2004. While this is still down dramatically from the 1992 peak USA market share of 9.4 percent, we are hopeful that the forecasted growth in arrivals will help the country maintain its market share of world arrivals. According to the WTO, “ the United States remains the unchallenged leader among the world earners with US $67 billion” in 2002, their most recent published figures, and is forecast to remain in that position through 2004. To see the world arrivals and receipts market share table for 1984-2004, please go to Latest Inbound Travel Data link, and then the Inbound Overview, or at: https://travel.trade.gov/outreachpages/inbound.general_information.inbound_overview.html

Background on Forecast Model:

This forecast was produced using an econometric model, which considers historical arrivals to the U.S, economic performance indices, political environments, and in-market conditions and related programs. Projections are available for 30 plus individual countries and all world regions. To learn more about the forecast program, go to: https://travel.trade.gov/research/programs/forecast/index.html

Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce, Room 7025
Washington, D.C. 20230
(202) 482-0140, fax: (202) 482-2887
e-mail: otti@trade.gov

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