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Date: Tues, 20 May 2003
From: TInews Announcement <announce@tinet.ita.doc.gov>
To: TInews Announcement <tiannounce@tinet.ita.doc.gov>
Subject: Revised Forecast for 2003-2006 International Arrivals Issued

=== TINEWS ===================================

An information service from Office of Travel & Tourism Industries
U.S. International Trade Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce


Revised Forecast for 2003-2006 International Arrivals Issued

Contact: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
E-mail: otti@trade.gov
Web: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov
Phone: (202) 482-0140, Fax: (202) 482-2887

The Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI) issued a revised forecast for international arrivals to the United States at the Pow Wow Press Conference in St. Louis, Missouri today. To see the press release for the forecast, please go to: http://www.ita.doc.gov/media/medianews.html

The May 20, 2003 release is entitled: International Visitor Numbers to Regain Full Strength by 2006.

In addition, OTTI has posted several tables that provide the new projections for international travel to the country for 2003-2006. Included is an International Travel Forecast Highlights for 2006. To see the tables and analysis, please go to: https://travel.trade.gov/cat/f-2000-99-001.html

Some of the Highlights include:
Spending by international visitors to the United States decline from $91 billion in 2001 to $88 billion (down 4%). Spending is forecasted to grow each year so that by 2006 the export value of international travelers to the U.S. will reach $115 billion. The country is projected to continue generating a trade surplus each year that will reach almost $13 billion by 2006. Spending by the international traveler to the U.S. has exceeded U.S. spending abroad since 1989.

The arrivals forecast indicates slow short-term growth for 2003 (up 1 percent) with the longer term showing more strength. The current forecast projects 51 million visitors by 2006, which means the country would surpass the record arrival total, registered in 2000.

The fastest growth in arrivals between 2002 and 2006 among the 30 plus forecasted countries will be from: Sweden, up 31 percent; Finland, up 28 percent; Belgium and Ecuador, up 27 percent; and the Netherlands, Israel, and Ireland, up 27 percent. As you review the forecast for arrivals, you will see numerous shifts in the top markets that generate visitors to this country. The growth rates vary each year as certain markets will recover quicker than others. Knowing who will recover and when will become even more important as this country tries to recover from the declines posted in 2001, 2002 and in some cases 2003. It is hoped this data will assist the industry capitalize on the markets that show promise for the future.

Of course, growth rates alone do not define a strategy for recovery. To develop a strategic plan for attracting visitors, this country, and the destinations within also need to take into consideration the number of visitors generated from a market, their spending, and other key traveler characteristics among other things. OTTI feels that this forecast along with additional data from our office and in conjunction with assistance of the Commercial Service staff in the United States and abroad, that Commerce can assist the industry in helping to provide the international traveler with the experience they desire in an international travel destination. Please visit the OTTI web site to learn more about the Commerce products and services that may assist you. Go to: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/

This forecast was produced using an econometric model which considers historical arrivals to the U.S, economic performance indices, political environments, in-market conditions and programs, and other influencing factors (such as SARS) for 35 individual countries and all world regions. To learn more about the forecast program, go to: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/research/programs/forecast/index.html


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Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce, Room 7025

Washington, D.C. 20230
(202) 482-0140, fax: (202) 482-2887
e-mail: otti@trade.gov

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