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TInews Archive #20021029.html

Date: Tue, 29 October 2002
From: TInews Announcement <announce@tinet.ita.doc.gov>
To: TInews Announcement <tiannounce@tinet.ita.doc.gov>

Preliminary International Arrivals for Second Quarter, the First
Six Months, and July 2002

=== TINEWS ===================================

An information service from the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI)
U.S. International Trade Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce


Preliminary International Arrivals for Second Quarter, the First Six Months, and July 2002

Travel through the first half of 2002 contracted 14 percent to 17,573,133 arrivals in 2002, compared to 20,342,513 arrivals in the first half of 2001. Signs of recovery are still apparent, however, the rate of recovery slipped during the second quarter of 2002 compared to the first quarter in 2002. An analysis of the changes occurring in the top arrival markets for the first six months is also available. Upon reviewing the July 2002 arrivals, travel to the U.S. declined by 12 percent, one percent more than the 11 percent decline in June 2002. The economic recovery world-wide is taking much longer than what was forecasted earlier and this has had an impact on travel to the U.S. which is seeing the recovery taking much longer as well.

Recovery Watch:
South Korea was the first top visitor market to have positive growth in 2002, compared to 2001 arrivals, however, arrivals have not reached a point of recovery prior to the 9/11 attacks. The rate of contraction by visitors from Australia, the Netherlands, and Spain through the second quarter was lower than the rate prior to the September 11 attacks for the second quarter in a row – indicating these markets have recovered from the 9/11 attacks, however, none have reached a point of arrivals growth.

During the first quarter of 2002 six of the top twenty visitor markets rate of contraction slowed to pre 9/11 declines. However, through the second half of 2002 (due to second quarter declines) four of the reported markets reverted to increasing declines in arrivals that were higher than the rate of contraction prior to the 9/11 attacks. These markets included: Mexico, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Switzerland. This indicates that the additional economic woes seen world-wide, the lingering impact of the 9/11 attacks, and continued safety concerns continue to weigh on travelers.

To learn more about the extent of the declines in international travel to the U.S. and what markets have reached a point of recovery, please see OTTI's analysis of the preliminary second quarter and first half arrivals for 2002. There are tables that provide arrival figures and the percentage change for the month and year-to-date for all world regions and the top 40 markets generating visitors to the United States for January-July 2002. To review this information, go to OTTI's monthly arrivals web site page at: https://travel.trade.gov/view/m-2002-I-001/index.html.

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Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce, Room 7025
Washington, D.C. 20230
(202) 482-0140, fax: (202) 482-2887
e-mail: otti@trade.gov

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